Preseason Rankings
Penn St.
Big Ten
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#57
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace67.7#212
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+3.5#80
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#30
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 3.2% 10.9% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 10.1% 10.9% 1.7%
Top 6 Seed 19.1% 10.9% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.4% 43.4% 19.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.6% 40.6% 17.1%
Average Seed 6.7 6.7 7.8
.500 or above 58.0% 60.5% 29.7%
.500 or above in Conference 44.2% 45.8% 25.9%
Conference Champion 4.9% 5.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 9.2% 8.5% 17.3%
First Four2.5% 2.6% 1.5%
First Round40.2% 42.2% 18.7%
Second Round22.7% 24.0% 8.5%
Sweet Sixteen9.4% 9.9% 3.4%
Elite Eight3.7% 3.9% 1.3%
Final Four1.4% 1.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 91.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1.6 - 5.71.6 - 5.7
Quad 1b2.3 - 3.53.9 - 9.2
Quad 24.3 - 3.58.3 - 12.7
Quad 34.9 - 1.513.2 - 14.2
Quad 43.4 - 0.316.5 - 14.5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2018 213   North Florida W 87-75 92%    
  Nov 12, 2018 146   Jacksonville St. W 71-63 83%    
  Nov 15, 2018 89   @ DePaul W 73-70 53%    
  Nov 20, 2018 138   Wright St. W 71-64 73%    
  Nov 21, 2018 117   Bradley W 69-64 69%    
  Nov 27, 2018 20   Virginia Tech L 71-75 44%    
  Dec 01, 2018 32   @ Maryland L 69-71 32%    
  Dec 04, 2018 25   Indiana L 68-72 48%    
  Dec 08, 2018 209   Colgate W 75-63 90%    
  Dec 15, 2018 38   North Carolina St. L 76-78 44%    
  Dec 19, 2018 182   @ Duquesne W 74-64 72%    
  Dec 21, 2018 39   @ Alabama L 69-71 35%    
  Dec 29, 2018 214   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-63 90%    
  Jan 03, 2019 19   @ Michigan L 64-69 26%    
  Jan 06, 2019 22   Wisconsin L 63-67 46%    
  Jan 10, 2019 35   @ Nebraska L 69-71 32%    
  Jan 13, 2019 10   Michigan St. L 67-74 38%    
  Jan 16, 2019 34   Iowa L 75-77 53%    
  Jan 19, 2019 68   @ Minnesota W 74-73 44%    
  Jan 26, 2019 140   Rutgers W 69-62 80%    
  Jan 31, 2019 27   Purdue L 69-72 49%    
  Feb 04, 2019 62   @ Northwestern W 67-66 41%    
  Feb 07, 2019 40   @ Ohio St. L 68-70 34%    
  Feb 12, 2019 19   Michigan L 64-69 45%    
  Feb 16, 2019 27   @ Purdue L 69-72 30%    
  Feb 19, 2019 35   Nebraska L 69-71 53%    
  Feb 23, 2019 76   @ Illinois W 75-73 48%    
  Feb 27, 2019 32   Maryland L 69-71 52%    
  Mar 02, 2019 22   @ Wisconsin L 63-67 28%    
  Mar 06, 2019 140   @ Rutgers W 69-62 62%    
  Mar 10, 2019 76   Illinois W 75-73 66%    
Projected Record 16.5 - 14.5 9.1 - 10.9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 2.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.1 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.0 2.5 0.5 0.0 6.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.1 0.7 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 3.7 1.2 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.2 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 3.8 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 3.5 3.3 0.8 0.0 8.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 3.1 3.4 1.3 0.1 8.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.2 13th
14th 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.1 5.2 14th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.2 4.8 6.7 8.0 9.4 10.6 10.7 9.9 8.8 7.6 6.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.6% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 90.6% 1.1    0.8 0.3 0.0
16-4 68.5% 1.4    0.8 0.5 0.0
15-5 35.6% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.6% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.7 1.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 30.7% 69.3% 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 29.1% 70.9% 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.2% 100.0% 18.6% 81.4% 2.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.0% 100.0% 14.0% 86.0% 2.7 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.0% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.6 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.0% 99.7% 11.3% 88.4% 4.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-7 6.0% 98.0% 6.4% 91.6% 5.9 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 97.8%
12-8 7.6% 93.1% 7.2% 85.9% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 92.6%
11-9 8.8% 78.0% 6.0% 72.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 76.6%
10-10 9.9% 56.1% 4.4% 51.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.3 54.1%
9-11 10.7% 25.9% 3.9% 22.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 22.9%
8-12 10.6% 8.5% 1.6% 6.9% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 7.0%
7-13 9.4% 2.8% 2.0% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.9%
6-14 8.0% 1.9% 1.8% 0.2% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.9 0.2%
5-15 6.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
4-16 4.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
3-17 3.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 3.2
2-18 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 41.4% 4.6% 36.8% 6.7 1.1 2.1 3.3 3.6 3.9 5.1 5.2 5.2 4.1 3.9 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 58.6 38.6%